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Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as OPEC forecast relatively strong growth in global oil demand over the next two years and a cold blast in the U.S. disrupted some oil production. OPEC, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by a robust 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to 106.21 million bpd. For 2024, OPEC saw demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from its forecast in December. Meanwhile, in North Dakota, a top oil-producing U.S. state, below-zero degrees Fahrenheit temperatures caused oil output there to fall by 650,000 to 700,000 bpd, to less than half its typical output, the state said. Domestic crude stockpiles rose last week by 480,000 barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday.
Persons: Fatih Birol Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, American Petroleum Institute, International Energy Agency, Reuters Global Locations: U.S, North Dakota, Africa, United States, Yemen, Iran, Gaza
REUTERS/Rula Rouhana Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Advocates for the energy transition are concerned ahead of the COP28 summit in Dubai about the high cost of capital available to make change happen, as policymakers ratchet up their rhetoric on the need for tight monetary policy. COP28 is widely expected to focus on climate finance, specifically to build on the G20 nations' commitment to triple renewables deployment to about 11,000 gigawatts by 2030, which will need funds of around $4.5 trillion. Climate finance is going to be the "Achilles' heel" of COP28, said Vaibhav Chaturvedi, fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Linda-Eling Lee, head of the MSCI Sustainability Institute, said companies and investors cannot be expected to commit long-term capital to the energy transition if policymakers change track suddenly. Agreements on greater transparency in disclosures, along with innovations in finance, will help mobilise more private sector funds, Lee said.
Persons: Rula, Gauri Singh, IRENA, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Chaturvedi, Linda, Eling Lee, Lee, Divya Chowdhury, Jan Harvey Organizations: Abu Dhabi Sustainability, REUTERS, Rights, International Renewable Energy Agency, Reuters Global Markets, Council, Energy, Bridgetown Initiative, World Bank, Bank, MSCI Sustainability Institute, Finance, Thomson Locations: UAE, Abu Dhabi, Rights MUMBAI, Dubai, Barbados, Bridgetown, Mumbai
REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Indian bond markets won't see a jump in volatility in the near-term after JPMorgan (JPM.N) announced India's inclusion in its widely tracked emerging market debt index, BlackRock's head of Asia Pacific fixed income said on Friday. JPMorgan said 23 Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) with a combined notional value of $330 billion were eligible for inclusion in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and index suite, benchmarked by about $236 billion in global funds. Given the size of the $2 trillion global government bond market, it may add only a little bit to the volatility in Indian bond markets, Seth told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Foreign investor buying in Indian bonds has remained tepid with net purchases of $3.4 billion so far in 2023. He also pointed to investment-grade credit in Asia and higher quality emerging market bonds, in a "tilt towards quality" as macro uncertainties persist.
Persons: Thomas White, Neeraj Seth, Seth, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, JPMorgan, Asia Pacific, Government, BlackRock, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: India, Rights MUMBAI, Asia, Mumbai
Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara
No strong case for jacking up bank charges: ECB's Wunsch
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Sept 21 (Reuters) - There are no strong arguments for the European Central Bank to increase mandatory reserves for banks, Belgian central bank chief Pierre Wunsch said on Thursday, weighing in on a key debate about a potential move to tighten policy further. The ECB cut to zero the rate it pays to banks on mandatory reserves earlier this year. Some policymakers are now pushing for an increase in the reserve requirement, in part to reduce losses associated with the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks. "I don't see any strong argument for using movements in the reserve requirements when we still have this huge portfolio (of bonds) that we can reduce," Wunsch told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. But Wunsch said that reducing central bank losses should not be the objective of monetary policy and changing the rules now could make commercial banks wary of taking part in future stimulus schemes.
Persons: Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Banks, Divya Chowdhury, Balazs Koranyi, Jane Merriman, Chizu Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Belgian, Mumbai
MUMBAI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Policymakers expect persistently slower growth in China, perhaps even more sluggish than current consensus estimates, seeing its transition from an infrastructure- and investment-led economy to becoming consumption-driven as "difficult". "The inflation rate in China is around 0% - that means distortion of domestic demand and domestic supply," he said. This follows economic growth in 2022 recorded at one of its worst levels in nearly half a century. The Croatian central bank chief sees narrowing room for expansionary policies in China, adding, "We have to be careful." The RBNZ has already factored in "a pretty subdued period" for commodity prices within their projections, before they see them beginning to rise again, Hawkesby said.
Persons: Takahide Kiuchi, Goushi Kataoka, Boris Vujcic, Robert Holzmann, Christian Hawkesby, Hawkesby, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Lisa Mattackal, Mehnaz Yasmin, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Former Bank of Japan, Reuters Global Markets, European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, China, Europe, Croatian, Austrian, United States, Mumbai, Bengaluru
But speaking on Wednesday, the last day before the ECB's self-imposed quiet period, the Dutch, French, German and Slovak central bank chiefs all said the Governing Council's decision was still open. France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau hinted that a fresh rate hike could still come at a later date and argued that the slowdown is not a recession and that the ECB needed to persevere in its fight with inflation. Slovakia's Peter Kazimir, an outspoken policy hawk, was more explicit, arguing that another hike was still needed to tame inflation. He said the ECB could delay a rate rise to one of its autumn meetings or pull the trigger next week. "It would be wrong to bet on a rapid decrease in interest rates after the peak," Nagel told German business daily Handelsblatt.
Persons: Nagel, France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Peter Kazimir, Kazimir, Klaas Knot, Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, " Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Akanksha Khushi, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, PARIS, Slovak
MUMBAI, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will be able to gradually shift away from its easy monetary policy only after ensuring its 2% inflation goal has been sustainably achieved, former board member Goushi Kataoka said on Monday. Kataoka expected the Spring 2024 wage negotiations to be key for the BOJ's inflation mission, Kataoka, currently chief economist at PwC Japan, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Once it begins exiting policy, Kataoka expects the BOJ to first remove the peg on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield, then exit its negative interest rate policy, and finally scrap the YCC policy. "Allowing the guide rate to effectively go as low as 1% would not be possible until the 2% (inflation) target is achieved," Kataoka said. "I'm worried about the stance of Kishida cabinet," he said, describing the previous administrations' tax hikes in 2014 and 2019 as undermining the Kuroda's bold monetary policy experiment.
Persons: Goushi Kataoka, Kataoka, Haruhiko Kuroda, BOJ, I'm, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Anisha, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Mumbai, Bengaluru
The Fed has cumulatively raised its target rate by 525 basis points to 5.25%-5.50% over the last 17 months. "I think there's a lot more to be seen," Alan Blinder, Fed vice chairman between 1994 and 1996, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum (GMF). So against that, if it's three months or four months faster, that's not a big deal, and suggests there's still plenty to come," Blinder added. Blinder also said core inflation tends to react to monetary policy action at a slower pace than headline inflation, and that coupled with the transmission lags means the Fed should consider pausing rates for some time from here. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe 'last mile' of bringing inflation down may prove difficult for the Fed, Blinder said, adding that the central bank won't be "stubborn" if inflation settles somewhat above its stated 2% goal.
Persons: Alan Blinder, there's, Blinder, Lisa Mattackal, Divya Chowdhury, Savio Shetty, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S, Reuters Global Markets, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S . Federal, Bangalore, Mumbai
The ECB has raised rates at its fastest pace on record in the past year, taking them to a more than two-decade high. "We still do not expect the Governing Council to raise key rates further at its September meeting." "The latest inflation figures raise the probability of a new increase in interest rates in September," Diego Iscaro at S&P Global Market Intelligence said. "However, this is far from a done deal, and a rapidly deteriorating economic background will still give doves in the ECB's Governing Council plenty of ammunition to argue for a pause." "This decline could counteract our efforts to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner."
Persons: Eric Gaillard, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Christoph Weil, Diego Iscaro, Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, P Global Market Intelligence, Thomson Locations: Nice, France, Austria's, ECB's, Frankfurt
The ECB is debating whether to raise rates again in September to combat stubborn underlying price growth or pause given the weakening outlook that is now raising recession fears. "We need to be very cautious about our decisions, because a lot has been done," Centeno told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "The labour market in Europe is performing in a novel way... I see a degree of flexibility in the European labour market that we were not used to see in the past," Centeno said. "This will ease wage pressures in our labour market, contrary to what we have [been used to] in the past."
Persons: Mario Centeno, Pedro Nunes, Centeno, Mehnaz Yasmin, Balazs Koranyi, Alison Williams, Mike Harrison Organizations: Bank of Portugal, European Central Bank, Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Europe
Aug 29 (Reuters) - Maintaining privacy and increasing understanding of blockchain technology are primary issues to solve before Brazil's central bank digital currency (CBDC) is ready for widespread use, the central bank's coordinator of the project said on Tuesday. Named DREX, the digital real is set for a first phase launch aimed at financial institutions in May 2024, though postponed from an initial planned launch in February. "We need to ensure that the privacy is compatible with the law," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Market maturity is another important issue to solve as the central bank wants businesses to develop new use cases for the technology, Araujo said. The Atlantic Council says 130 countries are in some process of exploring a CBDC, with 21 in the pilot stage.
Persons: Fabio Araujo, Araujo, Lisa Mattackal, Divya Chowdhury, Marcela Ayers, Lincoln Organizations: Machine, Banco Central, Reuters Global Markets, Atlantic Council, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Brazil, Mexico, Singapore, Bangalore, Mumbai
Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru
Wall Street investors weighed another rise in Treasury yields with the latest batch of economic data and earnings. U.S. long-term Treasury yields hit nine-month highs on Thursday after employment and other economic data pointed to easing inflation, maintaining their high levels in the afternoon. EURO SHARES DOWNEuropean shares (.STOXX) slipped 0.6%, the third straight day of losses, bruised by disappointing earnings reports and elevated U.S. bond yields. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2%, extending losses after a drop of 2.3% a day earlier. Spot gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,934 an ounce, held in check by a robust dollar and elevated bond yields.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, BoE, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Sterling, Stuart Cole, Morgan Stanley, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Jonathan Oatis, Will Dunham, Alexander Smith Organizations: Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall Street, Nasdaq, TD Securities, Reuters Global, . Labor Department, FTSE, Bank of England, Equiti, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Saudi, Boston, London, Sydney
Australia holds rates steady, might be done tightening
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Markets had leaned toward a steady outcome given recent data showed inflation had eased for a second quarter and consumer spending was softening. However, economists were more split on the outcome, with 20 out of 36 polled by Reuters expecting a hike. Swaps now implied a risk of around 13 basis points of tightening by year end. In a relief for policymakers, headline inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter while retail sales posted their biggest fall this year in June. "While the RBA retains a tightening bias, we expect the hurdle to another rate hike is high.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Michele Bullock, Belinda Allen, Goldman Sachs, Hebe Chen, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Anisha Sircar, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CBA, National Australia Bank, IG, Reuters Global Markets, Thomson
Investors now expect China markets to stage a recovery in the second half of 2023. "(China) markets have baked in a lot of the doom and gloom in the economy given the declines since January's peak," said macroeconomist Aidan Yao. If it is the case, spreads will start to tighten across the board," said Monchau, adding that China is under-represented in portfolios. Franklin Templeton expects the recovery in Chinese markets to happen in stages, with opportunities in the industrial equipment and banking sectors. "China (is) at the nadir of its business and profits cycle, but also offering what we consider compelling valuations."
Persons: Aidan Yao, Yao, Goldman Sachs, Charles, Henry Monchau, Mark Haefele, Franklin Templeton, Anisha, Divya Chowdhury, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Investors, Reuters Global Markets, Syz, UBS, Thomson Locations: COVID, U.S, Japan, Germany, China, Asia, Bengaluru
MUMBAI, June 20 (Reuters) - A quarter of workers surveyed by PwC expect to change jobs in the next 12 months, up from 19% last year, as they are increasingly left cash-strapped in a cooling economy while dealing with inflationary pressures. Even as the 'Great Resignation' continues, around 42% of the employees surveyed by PwC in its new study of the global workforce said they are planning to demand payrises to cope with the higher cost of living, up from 35% last year. "With the ongoing economic uncertainty, we see a global workforce that wants more pay and more meaning from their work," said Bhushan Sethi, joint global leader of PwC's people & organization practice. Around one worker in five is doing multiple jobs, with 69% of those saying they were doing so for additional income. Among the workers surveyed who were doing better financially, more than one-third said AI will improve their productivity, while a quarter expected AI to create new job opportunities.
Persons: Bhushan Sethi, Gen, Divya Chowdhury, Jan Harvey Organizations: PwC, Survey, Workers, Reuters Global, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Mumbai
Over 50 cryptocurrencies worth over $100 billion in total and making up about 10% of the overall market, are now viewed by the SEC watchdog as securities, according to CCData. Among major players, for example, solana , polygon and cardano have sunk between 23% and 32%. Bitcoin and ether weren't named in the SEC's lawsuit, nor were stablecoins such as tether and USC Coin. By contrast, bitcoin investors who have held their coins for more than five months appeared relatively calm and accounted for just 1.9% of deposit volume. Investment products tracking altcoins have seen positive - albeit small - net inflows this year, in contrast to bitcoin and ether, Coinshares data showed on Monday.
Persons: Vetle Lunde, Ryan Rasmussen, solana, Lucas Kiely, Alex Thorn, Noelle Acheson, James Butterfield, Lisa Mattackal, Medha Singh, Pravin Organizations: U.S, SEC, K33 Research, solana, Securities, Bitwise Asset Management, Reuters Global Markets, Cardano Foundation, Solana Foundation, Reuters, Polygon Labs, Reuters Graphics Reuters, USC, BTC, ETH, Firmwide Research, Galaxy Digital, Pravin Char, Thomson Locations: cardano, altcoins, Bengaluru
MUMBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - Investors are looking beyond the U.S. technology sector's bounceback this year for longer-term returns, as higher interest rates and an uncertain macroeconomic picture could present further headwinds, fund managers and strategists said. "The tendency is that ... the sector that leads in one cycle doesn't tend to lead in the following cycle," Yoder told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "We are staying away from the more interest rate-sensitive sectors such as tech," said Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at abrdn. Anticipating an economic slowdown in the second half, more cautious and selective positioning across fixed income portfolios is a better bet, said Jonathan Duensing, head of U.S. fixed income at Amundi. "We've always felt that the tech sector in general is one where you need to be very selective," Duensing said.
May 18 (Reuters) - Equity markets in North Asia will outperform the broader region this year, buoyed by China's reopening and a post-pandemic recovery-led earnings rebound, investors and strategists said. Liquidity from easing monetary and fiscal policy, along with Asian central banks' early victory on inflation, is expected to defend against an incoming downtrend, keeping North Asian equities resilient. Grace Tam, chief investment officer-Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, expects North Asia to outperform this year following a strong 2022 from South Asian equities. Goldman Sachs sees the north versus south disparity in Asia as a top investment theme in 2023. "China's growth recovery and North Asia's earnings rebound in 2024 remain our key investment themes and overweight areas," it said in its second-quarter outlook.
May 10 (Reuters) - Private-credit firms are eyeing fresh opportunities from a potential borrowing squeeze in the United States as battered regional banks tighten lending after the turmoil in the sector, according to fund managers and investment strategists. Such lenders see commercial and residential real estate as particularly attractive, given the prominence of regional banks in these sectors. Regional U.S. banks accounted for about 70% of outstanding loans to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector alone, according to Capital Economics. "Signature was one of the biggest providers of real estate lending in the New York area, commercial real estate is very vulnerable ... as a lender you want to be on the other side of that," Handa said. Many private credit funds have plenty of excess funds, or "dry powder" to invest, said Matt Malone, head of investment management at private investment management firm Opto Investments.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Kenya's central bank expects inflation to fall within its target range during the first quarter of 2023 and is comfortable with its trajectory, Governor Patrick Njoroge said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Kenya's inflation in December dipped to 9.1%, still above the bank's target range of 2.5% to 7.5%. With that in mind, the bank expects the Kenyan economy to grow 6.2% this year, Njoroge said, and does not expect a potential global recession to be "unmanageable". The bank is also not worried about depreciation of the Kenyan shilling, and expects more external financing to support the government budget, Njoroge said. The Kenyan shilling has slipped 0.54% against the U.S. dollar this year after falling over 9% in 2022.
"At the same time, we're estimating a mild recession in Europe and the United States that offset it. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization, pointed out that the reopening could help supply chains work better and also boost consumer demand. CHINA-US TENSIONSAdjacent to the discussions on China's reopening was what it could mean for its existing tensions with the United States over issues such as technology, trade and Taiwan, which several WEF delegates expressed concern over. "I think both the U.S. and China will be hurt, which doesn't just mean the national entities but workforces, people will be hurt." For daily Davos updates in your inbox sign up for the Reuters Daily Briefing here.
CHINA OUT./File Photo/File PhotoSummarySummary Companies Energy transition front and centre at Davos meetingEurope energy crisis forces moment of reckoningClimate activists sceptical of oil industry inclusionDAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 20 (Reuters) - A different type of energy transition has taken place at this year's World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting. Unlike 2021's COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, where oil and gas executives were personae non gratae, fossil fuel chiefs and renewable energy bosses sat cheek by jowl in Davos. Thunberg's was not the only voice at Davos with strong objections to the industry's new mantra that the energy crisis justifies new oil investments. Like Birol, British opposition leader Keir Starmer said the oil and gas sector has a role to play in the energy transition. Jaber, who is the founding CEO of Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy firm Masdar and has overseen the UAE's mandate to adopt renewables is not without green credentials.
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 19 (Reuters) - International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol said on Thursday that energy markets could be tighter in 2023, adding he hoped prices would not rise further in order to ease the pressure on energy-importing developing countries. "I wouldn't be too relaxed about the markets and 2023 may well be a year where we see tighter markets than some colleagues may think," IEA Executive Director Birol said in an interview with the Reuters Global Markets Forum in Davos. Two Gulf OPEC+ producers, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei and Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser, have said this week they see oil markets as balanced. Birol said Russian oil exports seemed to be more "resilient" than predicted at the beginning of last year, but that they were correct in terms of "the direction of travel". On Russian product price caps which may come into effect next month, Birol said he was concerned about diesel supply.
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